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View Full Version : Best Estimate???

a111087
06-05-2009, 08:05 PM
what would you define as "best estimate"? is it as "in best case" or "as close to real numbers as possible"?

will you say the same if I give you an example? "on the best estimate, about 2 percent of medicine sold in african countries are fakes"

some, looking at the number (2%), say its a relitively small number, thus it has to be "in best case" or "at least"

Answers.com defines "best estimate" as "A term applied to unbiased estimates which have a minimum variance." BUT is that really what was in mind of someone who built an example that I provided earlier?
Chris
06-06-2009, 06:07 PM
I'm guessing your taking "best estimates" as rounding numbers up or down. Well, I voted "OTHER : explain, please." and I came to the conclusion that it really matters on the situation.

For instance, if you are using money most banks and marketers will probably try to round the money down so they can save more money. In science and mathematics there are usually certain points and skills to round your numbers to the correct value. Most people use the 5 and above skill to round most of their numbers.
a111087
06-06-2009, 06:11 PM
oh, i probably didn't make it clear. but the only case I'm interested in is this:
"on the best estimate, about 2 percent of medicine sold in african countries are fakes"

what were they trying to say?
Chris
06-06-2009, 08:29 PM
In my opinion, I think they are trying to say that not all the drugs they sell in Africa are real. Meaning some drugs could be bootlegs or as they call them, "fakes." On the best estimate probably means after they have researched and calculated the best percentage of fake medicine sold in African countries.
a111087
06-07-2009, 02:59 AM
In my opinion, I think they are trying to say that not all the drugs they sell in Africa are real. Meaning some drugs could be bootlegs or as they call them, "fakes." On the best estimate probably means after they have researched and calculated the best percentage of fake medicine sold in African countries.

are you saying they meant that it could be more or less than 2%?
FordGT90Concept
06-07-2009, 03:19 AM
Best estimate literally means the lowest margin of error.

For instance, if your statistics come up with two answers like so:
2.2% +/- 0.2%
1.9% +/- 0.1%

The best estimate is 1.9% +/- 0.1% because it has the lowest margin of error.