Post 2016 US election fallout

Discussion in 'Politics, Drugs & Firearms' started by FordGT90Concept, Nov 22, 2016.

  1. FordGT90Concept

    FordGT90Concept Well-Known Member

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    The only reason why China labor still works is because oil is cheap. The moment the Middle East stops dumping oil, China no longer works economically because of transit costs. It's already losing its advantage in the labor department.

    And you're right: there's two sides to the humanitarian coin: on one side you have what is effectively slave labor ending, on the other needed workforce numbers are going to decline.

    I think living wage is the only path forward but for that to work, humanity collectively has to do something very dangerous: a governing body that can tax the producers and pay out the living wage on a global scale so there's no tax havens. I don't think it's possible and even if it were, it would lead to ruin.
     
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  2. yogurt_21

    yogurt_21 Well-Known Member

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    wow... you still don't get it.

    there was a nice thing on a robot that 3d printed a house... as in it made a concrete shell and then a pre-made roof was put on it.

    fun thing about that. The video famously leaves out the people required to load, move, install onsite, and maintain that bot. And it convieniently left out all the people who came in after the bot was done making exterior walls to turn that into a home. You know with windows, doors, facilities, flooring, carpentry, electrical, furniture...

    they claimed this automated robot made a house. In the end over 100 people worked on that house... and it was 400 square feet.

    We built 20'x20' homes in mexico with 100 people. 10 homes 1 week. All 10 homes were complete with all the furnishings and all 10 cost less than the transit costs for that automated robot.


    Universal Basic income is only necessary if the jobs are lost, rather than merely moved to a different industry or skill set.

    UBI is not going to happen because it's stupid. There will always be jobs for us. We are the most adaptable, skilled, and advanced organisms in the universe (as far as we know). You can't out engineer evolution.
     
  3. FordGT90Concept

    FordGT90Concept Well-Known Member

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    I'm gonna take a data dump:
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate
    https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/a...cipation-what-has-happened-since-the-peak.htm
    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.ZS

    Most people used to work in agriculture because people have to eat. Then most people worked in energy because mechanization reduced the need for agricultural jobs. Now the largest sector is "Health care and social assistance," followed by "Professional and business services," followed by "State and local government."


    You're missing the bigger picture: it's not how many people it took to build one home, it's how many houses those people can build in a day. 3D printers are slow which is why I've been talking about modular houses. Input raw resources, output multiple houses in a day with maybe 30 people working on the assembly line. If you took the modular component out, those same 30 people could only build a few houses in a month. There's only so much demand for houses and modular houses are saturating the market for cheap houses. Again, all that's left is artesian (custom) houses and repair. Repair is something that's going to be around for the foreseeable future but new home construction already employs far fewer people than it used to. Look at the last link above: manufacturer still employs almost twice as many people in construction and both were in decline. Information and Financial also took a huge hit because computers replaced tellers.
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2017
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  4. yogurt_21

    yogurt_21 Well-Known Member

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    still have not brought 1 piece of relevant data to the roofing because there is none that supports your argument. 1000 years ago there were thatchers in England. There are still Thatchers in England. 3000 years ago there were tile roofs in rome. There are till Tile roofs in rome.

    no matter the tech, the roofs will be put on by man. Weather that is metal decking, an advanced coating system, or something yet discovered the machines have not been able to remove man from the equation. Nor will they be able to.
     
  5. jmcslob

    jmcslob Well-Known Member

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    I've seen self loading, packaging, and haul away machines that are fully automated...

    One of the plants where I'm employed only needs humans to quality check the parts on a microscope because the machines aren't capable of doing that at the speed they run at...Yet... The machines stamp complex terminals at roughly 3000 a minute... Self loading, self packing...

    Only one human is needed to do what 700 did in 1998.... That actually happened where I work... Is still happening
     
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  6. FordGT90Concept

    FordGT90Concept Well-Known Member

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    Imagine a modular house. Now, instead of a roof, imagine the framework but instead of shit nailed to plywood, you have a standardized anchor system with prefab roof slabs attached. If you need to reroof your house, you remove the anchors, pick up the old slabs with a lift and install new slabs with same lift. A single construction guy (not a specialist) with a spotter could reroof an entire house in half a day. The slabs are prefabbed on a robotic assembly line and delivered to the site via automated driverless trucks.

    It's going to happen eventually. It might take a generation or two but like I said, it's very easy to see traditional roofing becoming an artesian job.

    Modular houses already come pre-shingled which takes jobs away from roofers. It's not really an extraordinary thing for them to switch to a quick swap roof on top of that changing a several thousand dollar job into a few hundred in terms of labor.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2017
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  7. yogurt_21

    yogurt_21 Well-Known Member

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    modular housing exists, it is not common for the reasons described in your post. When you replace a roof its expensive. What you described pretty much requires a new house budget, every time you replace a roof. I mean shit do you have any idea how much material that was still good you just fucking wasted? Forget 10-30 grand for a 30 square re-roof, try 100-250 grand for your specific module to be custom built in the factory now that they've completely changed the specifications.

    Forget a poor tax or a middle class tax, a new roof would be relegated to the uber rich. Goodness you're thick.

    If the module starts to leak, someone will have a coating system to fix it, or base material to tear off the old and replace it with new. It will be cheaper, faster, and require no 2nd mortgage delivery fees.

    Helloooo McFlyyyyyy cost and efficiency MATTER! There is nothing efficient about removing the top half of your house, nothing.

    Imagine taking your 30-50 year old car into the assembly line and having them re-manufacture it. Just how well is that automated machine going to do with a 30-50 year old spec sheet?

    Meanwhile as time goes on the manual labor gets more and more efficient. Thatchers from 1000 years ago used oxen and wagons to deliver the materials. It was hand cut after being hand sown. It took many cart trips to make a full roof. Then the birds and bugs would get all in it and much it up before the rainstorm and you'd have to crawl onto the roof to fix it.

    Thatchers today get it delivered in a semi and loaded by a large forklift. They put an elastometric underlayment under the thatch as a water and vapor barrier. The thatching works very similar on the install and is 2-4 feet thick depending on budget and roof size. Then they cover that with a wire mesh to keep the birds out and then treat it to keep out the bugs. It lasts 50 years when properly maintained. As good as any high-end architectural shingle.

    1000 years of advancements have netted a faster install time, better overall roof, and easier to maintain system all while keeping an eye for budget and curb appeal.

    You know nothing of this. Move on.
     
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  8. jmcslob

    jmcslob Well-Known Member

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    Regardless.... Needing 30 people to work whereas in the past they needed 20,000 people to do the same job means we are going to need a UBI... Economics don't work when we can only employ 5% of the population.
     
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  9. yogurt_21

    yogurt_21 Well-Known Member

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    missing the subtext in the analogies. All of this works great for NEW items. But the repair industry is only going to grow and grow and grow. Class wars get much worse and salvage operations become huge conglomerates. The more you automate, the more expensive the item. The more expensive the item, the fewer people who can buy it, The fewer who buy it, the more expensive it gets.

    Who's more automated GM or Tata motors? Who's cheaper?

    China labor vs US assembly line? who's cheaper and who's more automated?

    the more prices go up the less goods and services the lower class can afford. In a society that uses the poor as cheap labor that's an issue. In one where they have no value? Guess who gets to fend for themselves?

    balance in all things. If they do not create jobs the economy tanks. UBI is not even worthy of pipe dream status.
     
  10. FordGT90Concept

    FordGT90Concept Well-Known Member

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    Um? None? Any slabs that are in good shape could be repurchased by the manufacturing company, reshingled, and resold. Like forklift pallets.

    Uh, caulk? The design can be intrinsically designed to not leak too (e.g. interlocking slabs) so the odds of leaking pretty much ends up only being when a tree hits the house.

    Cost is cheap because labor is almost nonexistent. Slabs can be insulated too.

    Until it doesn't grow anymore because new costs less than repair.

    False. Prices are driven by the market. Automation reduces labor costs and increases productivity. If you have two companies with automated lines, the price is going to be more or less the same because of competition.

    Both are automated, Tata owns Jaguar Land Rover which of which some models are more expensive than anything GM makes.


    Automated jobs, like car manufacturing, aren't sent to China unless it's primarily for the Chinese market because China law requires it.
     
    Last edited: Apr 13, 2017
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  11. yogurt_21

    yogurt_21 Well-Known Member

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    Ah the multi quote, somehow comprehension was lost the day it was created. Give me a full cost analysis based on existing tech Use existing projects as an example. Don't forget (since you already have)
    retrofitting costs to all already built buildings (likely more than the world wide annual GDP for just the top 100 cities in the US)
    retrofitting costs to existing infrastructure including widening of lanes in old cities where no such thing is possible...ie factor in airlift costs.
    retrofitting costs to the transport trucks themselves
    starting materials cost
    recycling center costs
    manufacturing facilities costs (you will have to make new ones)
    transportation costs of the raw materials
    transportation costs of the finished items
    permits oh so many permits
    campaign "contributions" to make sure your projects are approved and certified nationwide (think of this more an an ongoing expense)
    OSHA oh how we love thee.
    If you're airlifting you need FAA approval, if you're using the highways you need NHTA approval this is addition to all the local authorities who'll want their take
    Emission you have to consider emissions or the EPA will shut you down
    The fact that no fucking one wants their ceilings torn off.


    oh I cannot wait for this not even up to amateur hour cost analysis. Go on keyboard warrior. Go forth and Quote!
     

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